Trade the tail.
Not the headline.

Kelly is an automated trading system that finds and exploits structural pricing inefficiencies in regulated prediction markets — using proprietary probabilistic models that see what other traders can't.

Explore the System View Performance
Live Validation in Progress
Kelly is currently in live validation testing. Verified performance data will be published here soon.

⚠️ Not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Why Kelly Wins

The edge that others
simply can't see.

📊
Deeper Data
While retail traders rely on a single point forecast, Kelly's model processes multi-source ensemble data with dozens of independent scenarios to build a true probability distribution.
🎯
Tail Precision
The largest mispricings occur at the tails of a distribution — where a point forecast is least informative. Kelly's model is specifically calibrated to excel in these high-edge zones.
⚡
Automated Execution
Continuous market scanning, collect-then-rank trade selection that evaluates every opportunity before deploying capital to the best, and active position management that exits early when conditions change.
🛡️
Risk-First Design
Six independent safety layers, dynamically scaling position sizes that compound with profits, conviction-aware sizing, and multiple circuit breakers ensure the system protects capital before pursuing profit.
🔬
Walk-Forward Validated
Every backtest uses real historical data with a 70/30 train/test split across 7,062+ events. No synthetic data, no curve fitting. The model proves itself on data it's never seen.
📱
Mobile Command Center
Native iOS app with real-time push notifications on every trade, live P&L tracking, equity curves, open position monitoring, and city-level performance breakdowns — all from your pocket.
Architecture

Your infrastructure. Your keys. Your data.

Four components work together — a self-contained Docker stack on your infrastructure, with a native mobile app for monitoring on the go. One command to deploy. No cloud dependencies.

🤖
Trading Engine
Proprietary model, market scanning, edge detection, order execution
📡
Dashboard
Real-time monitoring, P&L tracking, backtest UI, AI analyst
🔐
Shared Core
Risk manager, state persistence, settlement checker, alerting
📱
Mobile App
Native iOS app with push notifications, live stats, and position tracking
Live Platform

Built for clarity.
Designed for precision.

A full-featured trading dashboard with real-time equity curves, model calibration, city-level performance breakdowns, and an on-demand Claude AI analyst.

Kelly Dashboard
Real-Time P&L
Live equity curves, daily P&L tracking, and settlement history update the moment trades resolve.
AI Analyst
Claude-powered on-demand analysis — performance reviews, risk checks, and optimization suggestions.
API Health
Live monitoring of every data source — latency, error rates, and rate limits always visible at a glance.
Native iOS App

Your edge,
in your pocket.

Monitor every Kelly instance in real time from your phone. Get notified the moment a trade fires, see your equity curve grow, and track performance by city — without ever opening a laptop.

🔔
Push Notifications
Instant alerts on trade entries, exits, settlements, and risk events.
📈
Live Equity Curve
Watch your bankroll grow in real time with interactive charts and daily P&L breakdowns.
📋
Open Position Tracking
See every open position with entry price, edge, age, and exposure — plus recent trade history.
🏙️
City Performance
Per-city win rates, P&L, and average edge. Understand exactly where your alpha is coming from.
Kelly
● RUNNING
$572.48
Bankroll
+$72.48
Total P&L
80.0%
Win Rate
3
Open
KXHIGHNY-26MAR…WIN +$0.82
KXHIGHCHI-26MAR…WIN +$1.14
Security & Risk

Capital preservation
is the first priority.

Every trade passes through six independent safety gates. If any single gate rejects, the trade is blocked — no overrides, no exceptions.

1
Daily circuit breaker
Halts all trading if daily losses exceed the configurable threshold.
2
Total drawdown kill switch
Permanent settle-only mode if lifetime losses breach the hard limit.
3
Loss streak cooldown
Mandatory pause and automatic size reduction after consecutive losses.
4
Position concentration limits
Hard caps on single-trade size and per-bot exposure that scale dynamically with bankroll growth.
5
Dynamic Kelly sizing
Fractional Kelly Criterion with conviction scaling — sizes adjust based on edge confidence and compound with profits.
6
Active position management
Continuous re-evaluation of every open position. Automatic early exit when edge reverses. Force-close on timeout.
System Protections
🔑
RSA-PSS Authentication
Exchange API calls signed with SHA-256. Private keys never leave your machine.
🧪
Paper Mode by Default
Ships in demo mode. Live trading requires a multi-step safety gate with system checks and countdown.
💾
Crash-Safe Persistence
Atomic writes with fsync. No data corruption possible from crashes, OOM kills, or power loss.
⚡
Fill-or-Kill Execution
Every order fills immediately or cancels entirely. No resting orders, no stale fills.
🐳
Container Isolation
Each component in its own Docker container. Communication only through shared file volumes.
📋
Full Audit Trail
Every trade and risk event logged to append-only files. Discord webhooks for real-time alerts.
Performance

Validation testing
is underway.

We believe in publishing verified results — not projections. Kelly is currently running live validation on real Kalshi markets. Once we have sufficient data to report with confidence, results will be shared here.

LIVE VALIDATION ACTIVE

Walk-forward backtesting with realistic execution modeling has been completed. Live market validation is now running to confirm performance under real-world conditions — including spreads, liquidity, and settlement timing.

Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Live trading introduces execution slippage, partial fills, and liquidity constraints.

⚠️ Not financial advice. Trading involves substantial risk of loss. Only risk capital you can afford to lose.

Limited Access
Only 10 Licenses Will Ever Be Sold

This isn't a platform.
It's an allocation.

Kelly is permanently capped at 10 subscription licenses to preserve edge integrity and protect the alpha. Pricing details are coming soon — reach out now to secure your spot on the waitlist.

10
Total Licenses
Coming Soon
Subscription Pricing

Secure Your License

Ten licenses. No exceptions. Reach out to learn more about access, request a spot on the waitlist, or schedule a live demo of the full system in action.

Join the Waitlist Schedule a Demo

Kelly is an automated trading tool, not a financial advisor. Nothing on this page constitutes financial, investment, or legal advice. Past performance does not equal future results. All trading involves risk. Only invest capital you can afford to lose entirely. You are solely responsible for your own trading decisions.